Electricity Market Opportunities in Post-war Reconstruction in Ukraine: Strategic Layout of Distribution Grid Equipment Enterprises I

I. Analysis of the background and trend of the war

Overview of Ukraine

Ukraine is located in Eastern Europe, at the junction of Europe and Asia. It is the second largest country in Europe in terms of area, with a total land area of approximately 603,000 square kilometers and a population of about 36.5 million (data from 2024, which has declined due to the impact of the war). The capital, Kiev, is the political, cultural and economic center of the country.

The ethnic composition of Ukraine is mainly Ukrainians (accounting for about 77% of the total population), followed by Russians (17%). The official language is Ukrainian, but Russian is widely used in the eastern and southern regions. The religion is mainly Orthodox, and the social culture is deeply influenced by the Slavic traditions of Eastern Europe and the heritage of the Soviet Union.

Geographically, Ukraine borders Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania in the west, Russia in the east, and the Black Sea in the south. Its geographical location makes it an important channel between Russia and Europe, and also makes it play a complex role in geopolitics.

Historically, Ukraine has long been at the intersection of East and West forces.After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in1991After independence, it gradually approached the West and established close cooperative relations with the European Union, NATO and other organizations. This strategic tendency triggered subsequent regional conflicts to a certain extent.

Brief description of the evolution of the war in Ukraine (2014 Up to now)

The war in Ukraine began with 2014 At that time, Crimea was"Take over"And a pro-Russian armed conflict broke out in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine.Since then, Ukraine has continued to face the challenge of territorial integrity.

2022 Year Two In the month, Russia launched a full-scale military operation against Ukraine, and the war escalated in an all-round way. Initially, the Russian army quickly advanced to the vicinity of Kiev, but with the tenacious resistance of the Ukrainian army and Western assistance, the Russian army was forced to retreat. Subsequently, the war was mainly concentrated in the southeastern regions such as Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye.

The war has evolved into a long-term, consuming conflict, which not only brought a serious humanitarian crisis, but also seriously damaged Ukraine's infrastructure, especially its electricity, transportation and water supply systems.

Current situation: front-line stability and international assistance

Be no later than 2025 At the beginning of the year, the front was basically stable in southeastern Ukraine, and the two sides maintained a positional battle on the front line. The Ukrainian army gradually strengthened its defense capabilities with the support of Western weapons and intelligence, while the Russian army relied on the mobilization of troops and military industry to maintain the offensive.

International assistance continues: the United States, the European Union, the World Bank, etc. have provided financial and material support, among which the emergency repair of power infrastructure has become a priority area. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD.) and the European Union is promoting"Energy recovery plan", strive to ensure the safety of power supply in winter.

Expectations of a truce: the game of all parties and the possible political outcome

There is still a high degree of uncertainty about when the war will end. Most analysts believe that,2025Appear within the year"Comprehensive ceasefire agreement"The probability of is not high, but"Regional freeze conflict"The possibility is increasing. Similar"The ceasefire line of the Korean War"The demarkation of the formula may become a medium-term reality.

If a ceasefire agreement is reached, it will open a window for post-war reconstruction. The European Union and NATO may further intervene in Ukraine's national construction after the war, especially in key areas such as energy, electricity and transportation. It is also very likely that Ukraine will officially launch the EU accession process and fully adopt EU standards.

This means that post-war reconstruction is not only the restoration of infrastructure, but also an institutional transformation and market reshaping, which is both a challenge and an opportunity for Chinese enterprises.

Given the current geopolitical landscape, only Western Ukraine may be left in the future, and the territory annexed by Russia will not be returned. Therefore, after the Russia-Ukraine armistice in the future, not only Ukraine will be rebuilt, but also the areas occupied by Russia will be rebuilt.

II. Urgent need for power system reconstruction

The destruction of power infrastructure caused by the war (substations, lines, distribution network equipment)

Self 2022 Since the full-scale outbreak of the war, Ukraine's power infrastructure has been severely damaged. During the war, the power system not only suffered conventional military strikes, but also was forced to respond to targeted attacks from the enemy, resulting in large-scale power outages and long-term power interruptions. According to the report of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, in the early part of the war, Russia dealt a precise blow to energy facilities in major Ukrainian cities, resulting in a serious interruption in the nationwide power supply.

The following is the damage of the main power facilities:

A.The destruction of substations and high-voltage transmission systems

Substations and high-voltage transmission lines are key hubs in Ukraine's power system. After the outbreak of the war, Russian missiles and drone strikes targeted these facilities. The damage to substations in eastern and southern Ukraine is particularly serious. Many important substations were destroyed or severely damaged at the beginning of the conflict, resulting in large-scale power outages.

• Eastern and southern regions: Almost all major substations in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and other regions have been suspended. Major substations in the Donetsk region were blown up, causing the city's power grid to be broken and have not been restored so far.
• Kiev and the western region: Although the western region was less affected by the fighting, the high-voltage transmission lines in and around Kiev were also attacked many times, resulting in multiple power outages in the area.

B.Destruction of distribution grid equipment

Ukrainian distribution grid equipment (including ring network cabinets, switches, circuit breakers, etc.) is for power transmission."The last kilometer". Due to direct air raids and shelling, these devices were frequently damaged, resulting in prolonged power outages.

• Medium-voltage distribution grid: In the cities and villages of the war zone, the distribution grid system is seriously damaged.Medium-voltage ring network cabinet (RMU) and the circuit breaker on the column (Recloser) As a key power distribution equipment, it is not only destroyed, but also faces higher safety risks due to long-term unrepair. Especially in the eastern and southern regions, many small substations and power distribution facilities can no longer be restored.
• Low-voltage distribution grid: In rural and urban suburbs, due to the aging of infrastructure and frequent fighting, the damage to the low-voltage distribution grid is particularly serious, and it is difficult to repair and restore.

C.Damage to the transmission line

Transmit electricity The line is the main channel for power transmission. Ukraine's power transmission system covers a wide range, connecting the energy needs of various regions. As the war progressed, especially in the front-line areas, transmission lines were repeatedly attacked, affecting the nationwide power supply.

• Main transmission lines: Some important high-voltage transmission lines (such as the lines connecting Kiev and the west, and the lines connecting the east and Russia) were completely destroyed early in the war, resulting in the inability to obtain sufficient power supply in many areas.
• Power transmission problems in remote areas: In remote rural areas, due to the aging and difficult maintenance of the connected transmission lines, the power supply has been cut off for a long time, which even leads to the inability to meet the electricity demand in some areas.

D.Power supply safety and facility aging

In addition to the destruction caused by the war, Ukraine's power facilities themselves are also facing serious aging problems. The construction of many distribution grid equipment began during the Soviet period. Although it has been repaired and renovated many times, the technical level is still backward. In the process of post-war recovery, in addition to restoring equipment, improving the safety and technical level of power facilities has also become an important task of reconstruction.

In general, Ukraine's power infrastructure needs to face two key problems in the post-war reconstruction: first, the total damage and severe aging of equipment, and second, the complexity of large-scale infrastructure repair and modernization. The recovery work will require billions of dollars of capital investment, as well as the support of high-tech equipment and professionals.

Reconstruction priorities: emergency power supply, urban power grid, rural power grid, distributed energy access

With the gradual advancement of the war in Ukraine, the recovery of the power system is not only the restoration of existing facilities, but also an important opportunity for the transformation into a more sustainable and greener energy structure. In the future, Ukraine's power system will no longer rely on traditional thermal power and nuclear power, but will be fully transformed into photovoltaic new energy power plants to reduce dependence on fossil energy and promote green economic development. The following are the main priority areas for the reconstruction of Ukraine's power system:

A.Emergency power supply system recovery

Due to the large-scale infrastructure damage, the recovery of the emergency power supply system will be the top priority in the short term.Ukraine needs to provide electricity to affected areas through temporary and mobile power generation equipment, especially to ensure the basic power supply for hospitals, shelters and other important facilities in emergency situations.

• Mobile generator and backup power supply system: In order to cope with large-scale power outages and ensure people's livelihood, mobile generator sets will be used for temporary power supply. With the gradual repair and reconstruction of power facilities, emergency generator sets will be gradually withdrawn, and more stable and long-term solutions will become the focus.
• Pre-installed solar power generation system: Due to the superior lighting conditions of Ukraine, especially in the west and south, the adoption of photovoltaic power generation as an emergency power supply system will be an important direction. Solar panels and energy storage systems can be used to provide a stable power supply for temporary settlements and key facilities.

B.Reconstruction of urban power grid and access to photovoltaic power

With the reconstruction of urban areas, the restoration of the power grid will no longer rely on traditional thermal power and nuclear power plants, but will give priority to the deployment of solar photovoltaic power generation systems. Major cities in Ukraine, such as Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa, etc., will gradually transform into"Green city"The urban power grid will integrate large-scale photovoltaic power generation and energy storage systems.

• Photovoltaic power generation replaces traditional thermal power and nuclear power: Ukraine will give priority to building large-scale photovoltaic power generation projects and gradually shut down thermal power plants and nuclear power plants in order to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and reduce nuclear energy safety risks.The urban power grid will achieve seamless docking with these photovoltaic power generation facilities, realize the access of distributed energy, and support the sustainable development of cities.
• The combination of smart grid and photovoltaics: In order to improve the stability and flexibility of the power grid, Ukraine will adopt smart grid technology, combined with photovoltaic power generation and energy storage systems, to ensure the efficient use of photovoltaic power and the stability of power supply. Through remote monitoring and data analysis, the smart grid can optimize power scheduling, reduce energy waste, and regulate power supply during peak demand.

C.Photovoltaicization and green transformation of rural power grids

Electricity supply in rural areas has long depended on traditional thermal power and centralized power grids, and now photovoltaic power generation will become the core of the transformation of rural power grids in Ukraine.By building distributed photovoltaic power plants, we can not only achieve self-sufficiency in electricity supply, but also promote the development of the local economy and improve agricultural production efficiency.

• The combination of distributed photovoltaic power plants and agriculture: Small-scale distributed photovoltaic power plants can be built in rural areas, and solar panels can be installed in farmland, roofs and other open spaces to provide stable electricity supply for farmers. These photovoltaic power plants can not only meet the local electricity demand, but also provide clean energy for agricultural irrigation, processing industry, etc., and promote the green transformation of agriculture.
• Rural power grid and intelligent transformation: With the access of photovoltaic power generation, the rural power grid will gradually become intelligent, and energy storage equipment will be used to regulate the power supply to avoid energy Source waste, and ensure that electricity is stored at the trough and released at peak, so as to maintain the stable operation of the power grid.

D.Construction of large-scale photovoltaic power plants and new energy policies

Ukraine's future power structure will take large-scale photovoltaic power plants as the core, gradually eliminating traditional thermal power and nuclear power. The construction of photovoltaic power stations is not only to meet the growing domestic energy demand, but also the key to achieving energy independence and sustainable development in Ukraine.

• Rapid deployment of photovoltaic power plants: The Ukrainian government will accelerate the construction of photovoltaic power plants through policy incentives and financial support. Taking advantage of Ukraine's abundant sunshine resources, building large-scale photovoltaic power plants can not only ensure domestic electricity demand, but also achieve the goal of exporting green electricity to neighboring countries.
• Government green energy policy support: The Ukrainian government will introduce a series of supportive policies to encourage investment and technological innovation in photovoltaic projects. These policies will include import tariff reductions for photovoltaic equipment, project subsidies, and financing support for the construction of photovoltaic power plants. With the support of these policies, Ukraine will gradually realize the comprehensive transformation from traditional energy to renewable energy.

E.The energy storage system is interconnected to the power grid

With the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power plants and the popularization of distributed photovoltaic systems, energy storage systems will become an important part of Ukraine's power system. Energy storage technology can help balance the volatility and intermittuity of photovoltaic power generation and ensure the stable operation of the power grid at different times.

• The combination of battery energy storage and photovoltaics: In order to solve the instability of solar power generation, Ukraine will invest heavily in battery energy storage systems. These energy storage systems can store electricity when there is enough light and provide electricity to the power grid on cloudy days or at night to ensure the continuity and stability of power supply.
• Grid interconnection is in line with European standards: With energy independence and the popularization of photovoltaic power, Ukraine also plans to interconnect with the European power grid and improve cross-border power exchange capacity. This will enable Ukraine to make better use of green electricity, provide renewable energy to the European market, and reduce domestic dependence on traditional energy.

Expected required equipment and services:

With the transformation of Ukraine's power system to photovoltaic new energy, a large amount of equipment and professional services will be needed during the reconstruction process to ensure the efficient and sustainable operation of the new power system. The future power infrastructure is not only traditional power distribution and substation equipment, but also a large number of photovoltaic power generation equipment, energy storage systems, smart grid facilities and other new technologies. The following are the main equipment and services expected to be required according to the reconstruction needs of Ukraine's power system:

A.Photovoltaic power generation equipment

Photovoltaic power generation equipment will be the core of the reconstruction of Ukraine's power system. Through the large-scale construction of photovoltaic power plants and distributed photovoltaic power generation systems, Ukraine will be able to realize the wide application of clean energy. The specific equipment required includes:

• Photovoltaic module: Solar photovoltaic panels are key components of photovoltaic power generation systems, and a large number of high-efficiency photovoltaic modules will need to be purchased in the future. Depending on Ukraine's geographical location and sunshine resources, the selection of suitable photovoltaic modules (such as monocrystalline silicon, thin-film solar cells, etc.) will determine the efficiency of power generation and system life.
• Inverter: Photovoltaic power generation systems need to be equipped with inverters to convert direct current into alternating current. With the increase in the scale of photovoltaic systems, advanced inverters will become key equipment to ensure the stability of power output.
• Photovoltaic bracket and tracking system: In order to improve the power generation efficiency of photovoltaic systems, intelligent tracking systems (such as single-axis or dual-axis tracking) can maximize the reception of sunlight on solar panels.The bracket system will ensure the stable installation of photovoltaic panels and make effective use of space.

B.Energy storage system

Although photovoltaic power generation is clean and environmentally friendly, its intermittent and volatility make the energy storage system a crucial supporting facility. The energy storage system can store the electricity produced by photovoltaic power stations during the day and release it at night or on cloudy days to ensure the continuity of power supply. The required equipment includes:

• Battery energy storage system (Bess): Use lithium batteries, lead-acid batteries or other advanced energy storage technologies to store excess electricity. The battery energy storage system can provide high power output in a short time, balance the grid load and improve the stability of the grid.
• Energy storage conversion equipment: In order to convert the stored direct current into alternating current and connect it to the power grid, the energy storage converter (PCS) is indispensable. It will ensure that the stored electricity can be seamlessly fed into the power grid to meet the needs of residents and industries.

C.Power transmission and distribution equipment

Power transmission and distribution are the core components of the power system. During the reconstruction process, Ukraine will need to restore and upgrade its transmission and distribution grid to ensure the efficient transmission and distribution of photovoltaic power. The required equipment includes:

• Medium-voltage ring network cabinet (RMU）and distribution transformer: Restore and build a new medium-voltage distribution network to ensure the seamless docking of power supply from photovoltaic power stations to users.RMU and the distribution transformer will help distribute electricity and realize intelligent load management.
• Automatic switch and load switch: In order to improve the reliability and fault response speed of the power system, automated switches and load switches will be widely used, especially in smart grid systems. These devices can monitor the status of the power grid in real time, automatically switch circuits and quickly repair faults.
• Smart electricity meter and monitoring system: In order to achieve precise measurement and intelligent management, smart meters will become the standard configuration for families, merchants and industrial users. Unite SCADA(Monitoring and data acquisition system), the power company can control the operation status of the power grid in real time and optimize the power demand.

D.Intelligent power grid and automation system

Smart grid will be the core technology of Ukraine's power system in the future, which can efficiently manage distributed energy and improve the flexibility and stability of power grid operation. The key technologies and equipment required include:

• Intelligent power distribution system (Smart Grid): The intelligent power grid can monitor and dispatch the power grid in real time by integrating advanced sensors, communication equipment and automation technology. These systems will enhance the self-healing ability of the power grid and improve the adaptability to distributed energy sources such as photovoltaics.
• Distributed energy management system (DERMS): With the access of distributed energy such as photovoltaics, distributed energy management systems will become an important tool for power grid management. It can dispatch and optimize multiple small power sources to improve the overall efficiency of the power grid.
• Demand response system (DR.): Demand response technology can adjust the user's electricity demand according to the load of the power grid through intelligent electricity meters and automated control technology. This will help the power grid balance the load more efficiently and avoid overload problems.

E.Power grid interconnection and transnational power trading facilities

In the future, Ukraine will strengthen the interconnection with the European power grid to form a wider energy market. In this process, the required equipment and technology include: Transnational transmission lines and interconnection equipment

• Transnational transmission lines and interconnection equipment: In order to realize cross-border trading and sharing of electricity, Ukraine needs to build high-voltage transmission lines connected to the European power grid. Through this connection, Ukraine can export excess green electricity and obtain opportunities for transnational power scheduling and sharing.
• Synchronized power grid scheduling system: By adopting advanced power dispatching technology, Ukraine can achieve synchronous dispatching and mutual assistance with the power grids of neighboring countries, and improve the safety and flexibility of power supply.

F.Professional service and technical support

In addition to equipment, the reconstruction of Ukraine's power system also requires a large number of professional services and technical support, including:

• Project planning and design services: The restoration and construction of power infrastructure requires a high level of engineering design and technical support, especially in the construction of solar power plants and energy storage systems. Internationally renowned engineering companies will provide detailed design and feasibility study reports.
• Installation and debugging services: The procurement, transportation and installation of equipment will be completed by professional construction units and technical teams to ensure that the power system can be put into operation in the shortest time.
• Operation, maintenance and training services: In order to ensure the long-term stable operation of new power facilities, Ukraine will need a professional operation and maintenance team to carry out daily equipment inspection, troubleshooting and system optimization. At the same time, the training of local technicians in Ukraine will also be a necessary part of long-term development.